Global Market Update – July 11, 2025
Trade Tensions, AI Momentum, and Monetary Policy Crosswinds
Global financial markets are facing a volatile mix of opportunities and risks as trade policies, AI-driven rallies, and economic uncertainties collide. Let’s break down the key developments influencing stock markets around the world.
1. Strengthening U.S. Protectionism: Tariffs Return to the Spotlight
Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s re-election prospects are reigniting protectionist rhetoric. The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper and 25–40% tariffs on goods from 14 countries, including major trade partners like South Korea and Japan.
Additionally, the Department of Defense is seeking to reduce reliance on China by investing in rare-earth mining companies, signaling a broader shift in supply chain strategy.
Market Impact:
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Rising raw material costs may squeeze margins for manufacturers and exporters.
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Global supply chains may face further restructuring pressure.
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Export-dependent economies could see declines in related sectors.
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Investor sentiment may deteriorate due to increased trade policy uncertainty.
2. Tech & AI Stocks Continue to Dominate
Despite geopolitical noise, optimism in the tech sector remains strong:
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Bitcoin hits a record high of $113,000
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NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang joins the world’s top 10 richest people
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TSMC posts its best-ever quarterly revenue (Q2 2025)
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AI competition intensifies among Google, Meta, OpenAI, and Perplexity
In South Korea, aggressive foreign and institutional buying is driving gains in semiconductors and biopharma stocks.
Market Impact:
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Continued capital inflows into AI and semiconductor sectors
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Tech-heavy indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs
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Korean markets benefit from global AI spillover effects
3. Global Growth Concerns vs. Soft Landing Hope
Only 16% of OECD nations are expected to grow positively in the second half of 2025. Trade restrictions, supply bottlenecks, and high energy costs are dampening global growth momentum.
In South Korea, GDP growth is forecasted to hover around 1%, reflecting uncertainty from global trade frictions and domestic debt concerns.
Market Impact:
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Sluggish growth could weigh on corporate earnings forecasts
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However, soft landing hopes and AI-driven optimism are preventing sharp sell-offs
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Delays in rate cuts or prolonged uncertainty could heighten volatility
4. Monetary Policy & Currency Trends
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The Bank of Korea has kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.5%, citing risks related to housing and household debt
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In the U.S., the Fed’s path toward rate cuts remains murky, complicated by political pressure from both Trump and the current administration
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The USD/KRW exchange rate is hovering around 1,370, reflecting mixed investor expectations
Market Impact:
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While rate cut expectations support equities, inflation concerns remain
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Currency volatility adds another layer of risk for import/export-heavy firms
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FX-sensitive sectors like autos and travel should be monitored closely
Global Stock Market Summary (as of July 10, 2025)
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U.S.: All major indices (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq) closed higher, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs
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Europe: Mixed results — Euro Stoxx 50 and Italy’s FTSE MIB declined, while Sweden’s OMXS and Russia’s MOEX gained
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Asia: Hong Kong, Shanghai, and India’s Sensex fell; Nikkei 225, DAX, and CAC 40 advanced
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South Korea: KOSPI and KOSDAQ rose for the fourth straight day, with total market cap surpassing ₩3,000 trillion, led by semiconductors and biotech
Summary & Investment Outlook
Markets remain buoyed by the AI-fueled tech rally and strong earnings in the semiconductor space. However, rising protectionism, policy uncertainty, and slowing global growth continue to pose significant challenges.
Investor Takeaways:
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Stay cautious of near-term volatility tied to trade policy headlines
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Focus on structural growth sectors like AI, automation, and clean energy
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Diversify across geographies and asset classes to manage macro risks
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Monitor central bank actions and global earnings guidance closely
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.
